Quite a number of seniors have approached me recently expressing anxiety about Donald Trump’s becoming the President-elect. Besides their fears about a second burst of inflation due to threatened higher tariffs as well as the existential threat to U.S. democratic norms and institutions based on his past actions, probably the number one concern involves Social Security (SS). During the campaign Trump had publicly committed not to cut SS (as reported by Ron Lieber in the New York Times). However he has proposed ending taxes on SS income and on other sources that could accelerate the SS Trust Fund’s chances of running out of money even earlier than the current projected date of 2033. Will anyone in a Republican-majority government work to shore up this program?

I actually think they will. The National Institute on Retirement Security commissioned a poll by Greenwald Research about Americans’ views on retirement. The results show that, despite their political party affiliation, respondents’ viewpoints about their ability to retire successfully are quite consistent. In response to the question “How concerned are you that you won’t be able to achieve a financially secure retirement,” Democrats answered 57% and Republicans followed closely with 54%. Regarding employer contributions to workers’ retirement plans, 84% of Democrats and 81% of Republicans felt they should contribute more. And both felt the rising cost of healthcare in retirement in the biggest factor in making retirement harder (72% Democrats and 71% Republicans).

With such a consensus view by citizens of different political stripes, you’d think that Congress and the President would work together to solve the problem. For the most part, when it comes to retirement, they usually do. They are certainly aware that seniors represent one of the largest voting blocks in the country. According to AARP 52% of voters are over age 50. Politicians know how important it is to please their constituents.

Most of the recent retirement legislation (SECURE and SECURE 2.0 Acts) was developed and passed with bipartisan support during both the previous Trump and Biden administrations. I would expect those talks to continue to try to address many of the concerns being expressed in the various retirement polls. Less clear is what will happen to Medicare and President Biden’s signature approach to reducing drug costs.

Another misunderstanding by many seniors is the fear of SS going bankrupt when its trust fund runs out of money, potentially in nine years unless something is done. The fact is that 79% of SS payments to seniors come from payroll taxes. Which means that, even if the government does nothing to fix the trust fund, SS will continue to pay out almost four-fifths of everyone’s benefits for many decades.

The government still needs to fix SS, either by raising taxes, reducing benefits, or some combination. There have been numerous solutions proposed but not enough political will to complete the task. Can they do it during the next Trump administration? I hope so.  

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