Thoughts On Yesterday’s Market Decline

Thoughts On Yesterday’s Market Decline

Once again the capital markets are exhibiting a high degree of volatility. Yesterday the Dow fell 799 points, representing a 3.1% decline. The media attributes the loss to new uncertainty over the alleged trade “agreement” reached with China in Buenos Aires last week that had been touted so positively by Trump. Other political concerns in…
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The Worst Performing Investment of 2018

This year has not been kind to most asset classes. US stocks are negative for the year, international stocks (particularly in emerging markets) have been clobbered, commodities are down, and even bonds have been unable to provide a positive return. Coming on the heels of 2017, one of the best years for all asset classes,…
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Why Stocks Dropped So Much In October

From October 1 through October 31 the S&P 500 dropped over 7%. And this came on the heels of a gain of over 9% between the beginning of 2018 and the end of September. Why did this happen? The explanation is quite simple although likely far from satisfactory. As I have written previously, there are…
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Will Trump’s Trade War Benefit The U.S.? (Part 2)

Part 1 addressed tariffs in general and why they are for the most part shortsighted. In this post I’ll briefly address Trump’s misconceptions about trade. The first fallacy is his apparent belief that bilateral trade with every country must be even. That is, if we run a trade deficit with a country like China, then…
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Will Trump’s Trade War Benefit The U.S.? (Part 1)

It’s difficult to explain a complex topic in a single post so I will attempt this in two parts. First, I’ll address tariffs in general and why they are for the most part shortsighted. In a following post I’ll address Trump’s misconceptions about trade. Let’s first try to understand why a country would impose restrictions…
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Will USMCA Make America Great Again?

President Trump recently announced “the greatest deal in the history of the U.S.,” the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). He is promoting it as a replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that had been in place since 1994 and that Trump had called “a really bad deal.” Putting aside Trump’s recurring penchant for extreme…
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