I have heard from several clients about how worried they are regarding the upcoming presidential election. I won’t delve into the politics; you can draw your own conclusions as to the consequences of one or the other candidate’s getting into or remaining in power. But as far as the stock market is concerned, I don’t…
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“It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.” That’s one of my favorite aphorisms attributed to Yogi Berra. At the beginning of every year hundreds of economists, strategists, and self-proclaimed pundits announce their annual predictions for the capital markets, blithely ignoring their own past history. Let’s take a look back to see how well…
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The yield curve is the difference between yields (current interest rates) on ten-year U.S. treasury bonds as compared to two-year treasury bonds. Last year the yield curve inverted, meaning the yield on the shorter-maturity two-year bonds is higher than that for the longer bonds. This is an unusual situation since longer bonds – which are…
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The year 2022 will go down in my book as the worst year in history for the U.S. investment markets. Why do I assert that so strongly? It’s because of what happened to bonds. The S&P 500 lost -18.1%, making 2022 merely the seventh worst year since 1926. But that wasn’t the main story. The…
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