Does it seem to you that the stock market is totally disconnected from the reality of the economy? Business news has been as bad as it gets. The number of unemployed workers has reached record-setting levels while GDP has declined to levels not seen since the 1930s. Federal debt has increased by over $3 trillion.…
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There are really two questions here. The first is whether or not the cost of the CARES Act and the other federal government rescue/stimulus spending packages could drive the U.S. government into bankruptcy. The second concerns the impact on our children and grandchildren of the mountain of federal debt that will be left to them.…
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It’s January and my email inbox is once again flooded with capital market predictions for 2020. Looking back at the “expert” predictions for 2019 made last January, the majority as usual turned out to be wrong. Rather than sharing those predictions that were most egregious (which would be more fun than educational), I thought this…
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Per Wikipedia, James Truslow Adams defined the so-called American Dream as “life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement.” This suggests that each generation of Americans should be experiencing a greater degree of success and prosperity than their predecessors. Is it happening? One way…
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced another jarring 800-point drop yesterday, roughly a 3% loss. The media attributes it to (1) the inversion of the yield curve and (2) the 0.1% decline in Germany’s GDP. Talk of an impending recession has ramped up. Most likely the questions on investors’ minds are “Is a recession…
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Frequent readers of this blog know that I do not believe anyone can predict the future. So it might come as a surprise that, based on the title of this post, I appear to be doing just that. Well, I’m not. I’m just sharing some historical data to put business cycles in perspective. We are…
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