Five Investment Fallacies

Five Investment Fallacies

Over my many years as a financial planner I’ve pretty much heard it all when it comes to investment beliefs and expectations. Here are five of the more interesting investment fallacies I’ve encountered. A stock split is a buy signal (false).  A stock split is nothing more than a company’s attempt to reduce the price…
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Is Active Management Better During Downturns?

There are two ways mutual funds can be managed. Actively-managed funds are those whose management teams attempt to generate a better return than the average return produced by the asset class in which the fund invests. Passively-managed funds simply try to achieve the average return. Because active funds require more analysts and/or complex software algorithms…
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How Bad Was The First Half Of 2022?

Pretty bad. I’m not referring to the war in Ukraine, or the surge in COVID infections, or supply chain disruptions, or the growing number of gun deaths in the U.S. I’m talking of course about the capital markets. The negative 21% performance of the S&P 500 during the six-month period ending on June 30th ranks…
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Why Some People Make Bad Financial Decisions

When I was a teenager I was a fan of science fiction. I recall reading one story about an attempted takeover of the world by a bad guy using warrior robots. His nefarious plan was thwarted by the good guy who discovered a way to cause the robots to self-destruct. The solution involved feeding conflicting…
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Some Reassurance For Volatile Times

The capital markets are once again experiencing a bout of high volatility. Both stock and bond returns are negative year-to-date, with technology and other growth stocks leading the pack. Possibly investors are worried about the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Or the longer-term likelihood of protracted inflation. Or interest rate increases. Or something…
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Why The Yield Curve Does Not Predict A Market Downturn

The U.S. Treasury bond yield curve is in the news again after briefly turning negative earlier this month. The financial media is trumpeting this event as an indicator that a recession will likely follow with a concomitant stock market decline. I suggest that this indicator is not useful in predicting either one. The yield curve…
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